prasad1
Active member
Quite early in his 2012 book ‘Robots will steal your job, but that’s ok,’ author Federico Pistono presents an idea known to supporters of technology as ‘The Luddite Fallacy.’ A reference to angry English textile workers in the early 19th century who protested against imminent job losses by breaking knitting machines and other labour-saving innovations, the term is used to imply that Luddites (or those who fear technology) have got it all wrong. What it suggests, rather, is that new technology creates more jobs than it destroys. So, don’t fret.
For a long time, including a good part of the era of computers and the Internet, this argument seemed difficult to counter. Not anymore. It may have run its course, as Mr. Pistono acknowledges later in the book. And this could dramatically change the way the world functions.
Here’s some data. Technology research firm Gartner predicts software, robots and smart machines will take over one out of three jobs in another 10 years. Futurist Thomas Frey predicted a few years back that two billion jobs, half the total, will disappear by 2030.
As always, it will be argued that India, not being a developed economy, can breathe easy. Yes, the pace of adoption of technology might be relatively slower here than in advanced economies. And yes, it is difficult to imagine driverless cars buzzing around here anytime soon. But it is important to appreciate how India Inc, the organised job-giver, has already taken well to automation.
Auto companies, for instance, have over the years increasingly used robotics, which they have found to be more cost-efficient and less problematic than labour in the long run. IT companies now are betting on automation to deal with a lot of routine stuff. Machine learning, by which software systems learn to make decisions based on data, will only make this significantly better.
In the coming years, some jobs could disappear faster than others. India, where income inequalities are already large, has to start wondering what to make of the coming technology world. For, the Luddites may be finally right.
The Luddites might have been right - The Hindu
For a long time, including a good part of the era of computers and the Internet, this argument seemed difficult to counter. Not anymore. It may have run its course, as Mr. Pistono acknowledges later in the book. And this could dramatically change the way the world functions.
Here’s some data. Technology research firm Gartner predicts software, robots and smart machines will take over one out of three jobs in another 10 years. Futurist Thomas Frey predicted a few years back that two billion jobs, half the total, will disappear by 2030.
As always, it will be argued that India, not being a developed economy, can breathe easy. Yes, the pace of adoption of technology might be relatively slower here than in advanced economies. And yes, it is difficult to imagine driverless cars buzzing around here anytime soon. But it is important to appreciate how India Inc, the organised job-giver, has already taken well to automation.
Auto companies, for instance, have over the years increasingly used robotics, which they have found to be more cost-efficient and less problematic than labour in the long run. IT companies now are betting on automation to deal with a lot of routine stuff. Machine learning, by which software systems learn to make decisions based on data, will only make this significantly better.
In the coming years, some jobs could disappear faster than others. India, where income inequalities are already large, has to start wondering what to make of the coming technology world. For, the Luddites may be finally right.
The Luddites might have been right - The Hindu
