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Business and Economy-The Gold

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This counter point was an interesting read. So I share with the members here:

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Will someone tell Rajan & FM that
Indians have already monetised their gold?
R Jagannathan
The First Post Online
Published on June 8, 2015
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[TD="width: 589"]A few weeks back, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced draft guidelines for a “gold monetisation scheme” under which people holding gold can make their "unproductive asset" earn a return of, say, 1 percent– in metal. Anyone with a minimum of 30 gm of gold, as coins or bars or jewellery, can get her gold assayed, assessed and deposited with banks to get a return that would be free from wealth or income tax.

Huh?

Someone should tell the mandarins in Mint Street, or North Block, that as far as ordinary Indians are concerned, gold is already a monetised asset. Monetisation is the act of converting something into money, and gold has already achieved that status. People save in gold for difficult times, they borrow using the yellow metal as collateral, they beat it into jewellery when then have to gift it to a daughter, and melt it back into coins or bars when they want to salt it away for the future. No one I know thinks he has to pay tax on gold. For taxes are paid only when you declare what you hold, and gold is not something you shout about from the rooftops.

If the RBI and the finance ministry think they deserve kudos for providing a “solution” to a “problem”, they ought to have their heads examined. The gold monetisation scheme is a “solution" to a "problem" that only exists in the minds of babus and economists. Beyond this group of busybodies, no one in India - and certainly not the man on the street - is losing any sleep over gold. This is why artificial solutions will not work.

Terms like "barbaric relic" and "unproductive asset" are used pejoratively to run down the average Indian's love of gold. But they have continued to ignore the cacophony and continue to buy gold – a little less when it is expensive and a little more when it is cheap. They see value in owning the metal. The real question is: why are governments and moneymen so obsessed about putting gold out of business? Why are they trying so hard to grab people's gold when the latter are showing no willingness to give them up?Of course, there is the CAD explanation: too much gold import is pushing up the import bill, and hence the current account deficit (CAD). But, surely, the babus know what to do if matters get out of hand: tax it till it hurts. This is what the UPA did when the rupee seemed headed for Rs 70 to the dollar. Beyond reducing the immediate import bill, it achieved precious little.

The larger philosophical question to ask is this: when the collective wisdom of 121 crore Indians is being called into question by a few people in the policy establishment, whose views should you go by? It is time to question the sanity of the latter rather than the former. The RBI and North Block should stop messing around with gold and instead try and understand why people buy gold when they can. Here's a primer for them.First, the ordinary Indian does not see gold as an "investment" even though it is a form of saving. Not all saving is investment. Ordinary people will save money no matter what the interest rate is. They may save more if the rate is attractive, they may save less if it isn’t. But they will save. People saved before there were banks; thus they will buy gold as a form of long-term savings whenever they can afford it. Gold has held its value against inflation over the long term, and every Indian knows that.

Second, gold is money, not just a piece of barbaric metal. Economists tend to forget that gold has always had exchange value since time immemorial. Anything which has exchange value is a form of money. Even the poor know that gold will always have value, while paper money created by fiat can lose value when governments run mindless deficits over long periods of time. Gold is guaranteed money; paper money can be debauched by government.Third, gold is the poor man's Swiss bank. When you put money in a Swiss bank, it is less about returns and more about finding a safe haven which guards the core capital, retaining its current value well in the future. Any positive return is a bonus. Given the anonymity of gold, governments cannot control its use or hoarding. This is why the ordinary Indian has faith in it. Anything the government can control can be confiscated too.

No Indian really trusts the government. Gold reigns when mistrust reigns.
Fourth, gold has use value, too. Most Indians like gold jewellery and hence the normal rise and fall in gold prices does not faze them. Gold is like that painting you love to hang in your living room. As long as you like seeing it on your wall, you will not worry about the price you paid for it, or its current value. If it appreciates, well and good, if not, you still get psychic value from seeing it adorn your wall.Fifth, the Indian public will believe you when you act out your beliefs, not when you give unwanted advice on gold. If gold is an unproductive asset, why is the RBI holding $19 billion in gold? Why not give this away? What is the logic of telling Indians to part with the metal and then hoarding it yourself?The average Indian buys gold for the same reason the RBI does: to stash it for the rainy day when all else loses value.Let’s remember, paper currency evolved from gold, and not the other way round. Bankers’ receipts received against gold coins were what became currency. In due course, the acceptability of paper money replaced gold as currency, and populist governments saw a golden opportunity to use the print press as a substitute for sound economic policies.Indians love gold because they know it cannot be debased.

They know it is money, real money, not just paper. Now, why don’t governments understand that?
The most sensible thing for Raghuram Rajan and Arun Jaitley to do is to let Indians keep their gold and work on ensuring that the value of the paper rupee maintains its value over time. At some point, Indians will tire of the risks associated with the metal, and shift to paper rupees, if it can be trusted to not lose value. The only way to make gold unattractive is by making the rupee more attractive to hold.Surely, Rajan and Jaitley have better things to do.[/TD]
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Who is this author of the article? What is his qualification? Has he been a rankerholder or a third class student?

Rajan is a genius, he has done the right thing by monetizing gold. In India, most of the middle class & lower middle class hoards gold for generations as a hedge… They can generate income on this now by depositing in the banks.More money will flow into the economy pushing the GDP growth.

Banks can re-capitalize based on the .huge gold deposits,lend more & earn more money..

In 1 yr+, when the GDP grows, it will be based on what Rajan has done so far !! But he may be pushed out of this role due to the North/ South issue.
 
Who is this author of the article? What is his qualification? Has he been a rankerholder or a third class student?

Rajan is a genius, he has done the right thing by monetizing gold. In India, most of the middle class & lower middle class hoards gold for generations as a hedge… They can generate income on this now by depositing in the banks.More money will flow into the economy pushing the GDP growth.

Banks can re-capitalize based on the .huge gold deposits,lend more & earn more money..

In 1 yr+, when the GDP grows, it will be based on what Rajan has done so far !! But he may be pushed out of this role due to the North/ South issue.

I do not know about the qualifications of the author. But I know for certain that I am an ignoramus. So this question. Please answer it.

I have a two row chain presented to me by my grandfather and another four row chain which is a very old coming through generations and given to my wife by my mother. Will you please tell me whether your gold deposit scheme will give me back my chain when I need it or will it give a biscuit of gold which I can neither wear nor relate to. There goes out through the window your gold deposit scheme. It requires just an ignoramus to come to this conclusion and not a very learned pundit member of this forum. LOL.
 
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Vaagmi JI –

you will get back the chain in the exact same condition. when a bank has more assets, it can "capitalize" the same amount in terms of hard currency & lend it others to earn money.

Lets say, a person has 100 crores asset, then he can borrow 50 Crores cash from the bank by pledging his asset & do his business. And lets say, he earns 10% on this money by money-lending, he will earn 5 Crores at the end of the year & give back the 50 crores to the bank assuming zero interest. So Gold deposits are an "asset", that can be used to "borrow or lend" more money.

So his 100 crore asset continues to exist in the “same condition” which is the case with the Gold chains deposited by you & the various people.

Cheers,
 
I do not know about the qualifications of the author. But I know for certain that I am an ignoramus. So this question. Please answer it.

I have a two row chain presented to me by my grandfather and another four row chain which is a very old coming through generations and given to my wife by my mother. Will you please tell me whether your gold deposit scheme will give me back my chain when I need it or will it give a biscuit of gold which I can neither wear nor relate to. There goes out through the window your gold deposit scheme. It requires just an ignoramus to come to this conclusion and not a very learned pundit member of this forum. LOL.

Shri Vaagmi sir,

I doubt very much if your gold chains will be returned in the same form. My Father-in-law once deposited in some Gold Bond Scheme with the same hope but at the end of all the usual government formalities and delays (he had to prove that he was the original giver of the gold, etc!) what he got back was a small 'chunk'-like bit!

The poorest sections of our population even now are more intelligent than Rajan. The vegetable vendor woman who supplies by headload and going from house to house, gave a 2-sovereign gold necklace to her granddaughter when she attained puberty; as per their caste custom, though gold is not mandatory, a gift is, and our lady preferred the gold necklace or chain. Our maid servant in the house also gave gold ornaments only to her new-born grandchildren on the 28th. day of birth. (Kerala people have a "noolukeTTu"=tying of string, on that day for all infants and close relatives like grandmother, uncle, etc., give gift of gold on that day to the child.)

I have seen the poorest people pledging gold ornaments of 2 or 4 grams with bank branches in the remote village areas and usually they redeem it also. Thus gold is the reserve which poor people trust and it is almost monetised in Bharat, may not be in India!
 
Sentimental Value and market value of gold are two different things. The sentimental value can not be substituted. The government can only return the market value (or promised value).

The government and banks are not pawn shops, and you have to pay interest to the bank. for bank to monetize ornaments, they can not keep the ornaments in original form.

If banks have to keep the gold in the ornament form there is lockers (and bank will charge you money to keep it).
 
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Vaagmi JI –

you will get back the chain in the exact same condition. when a bank has more assets, it can "capitalize" the same amount in terms of hard currency & lend it others to earn money.

Lets say, a person has 100 crores asset, then he can borrow 50 Crores cash from the bank by pledging his asset & do his business. And lets say, he earns 10% on this money by money-lending, he will earn 5 Crores at the end of the year & give back the 50 crores to the bank assuming zero interest. So Gold deposits are an "asset", that can be used to "borrow or lend" more money.

So his 100 crore asset continues to exist in the “same condition” which is the case with the Gold chains deposited by you & the various people.

Cheers,

Jaykayji,

You may have to check your source again. I referred to the notification issued in this regard. It is clear that the gold jewellry deposited will be assayed and melted. When the depositor wants the invested gold back it will be given to him in cash at market value or as gold (not as jewellery in the original form). That is the reason why this scheme may not work with the middle class indians and they are the people who buy and hold the largest chunk of gold in the world.

You are confusing assets and liabilities with cash flow. Think about it coolly.
 
This entire scheme is likely to be a big flop.
This is why:
In order to get gold out of peoples households and vaults it needs a huge incentive which the current proposal fails to address.
The issues which will lead this scheme to fail are as follows.

  • An estimated 80% of the gold held by Indians is in the form of jewelry. Whoever has bought jewelry will know that on today’s day the making charges on gold jewelry are in the region of Rs 600 per 10 grams (tola) which comes to around 20-22% of the gold value. Who will be willing to give up jewelry to get a gold deposit form? Moreover, the interest rate on gold deposits is unlikely to be more than 3-4%. Therefore, just to recover the making charges on the gold, one will have to wait for over 6 years. On top of that, converting this gold back back into jewelry will entail another 20% cost as making charges.

  • The scheme -- as it is proposed -- requires the depositor to show a receipt of purchase. This, frankly, is a ridiculous requirement. To begin with, the purpose of the entire exercise should be made clear. It seems like the purpose is to reduce imports and bring greater liquidity into the domestic economy which will in turn drive growth. Under these circumstances, asking for a receipt is difficult to fathom. Moreover, for any ancestoral jewelry there is unlikely to be any receipt.

  • How are banks going to hedge their risks on gold price movements? There is not only a currency element involved here but also that of gold price movement. Handling and storing physical gold might involve costs which could make the overall costs unviable for banks.
The government might be successful in getting some temple trusts to put in their gold into this scheme but that will be a very small proportion of the entire gold in the country. I do not see the monetization efforts getting even 100-200 tonne under the current scheme of things -- less than 10% of the total gold holding with Indians.

http://www.dnaindia.com/money/repor...ong-with-the-gold-monetisation-scheme-2094142
 
The only way to get bigger quantities of gold to come into this scheme is to offer a 'gold amnesty scheme'. I believe that the best way to run this scheme will be as follows:

  • As the first step the gold will be declared by the holders to the government and the government will in turn issue 10-year zero coupon bonds to people who declare gold. The yield on these bonds will be in the region of 3% and on redemption the amount that is paid will not be taxed. The post tax yield on ordinary 10-year bonds are in the region of 5% and 2% gap will take care of the tax that the declarer has possibly not paid on the money used to buy gold.

  • At the second step the government will have to decide what to do with the gold that it has got. One option would be to sell it to the RBI which will then add this gold to the foreign exchange reserves and in turn given the equivalent money in INR to the government.

  • The other option will be for the RBI to sell this gold in the international market, realize the money in USD and provide the equivalent INR amount to the government.

  • The last option will be for the Government to open up the gold so bought for purchase by the Indian public. This will cut down imports of gold significantly.
Any of these options will boost the foreign exchange reserves, stabilize the rupee and build foreign exchange reserves. Now, the question is how much gold will the government need to get to make a meaningful impact?
At current prices one tonne of gold will be approximately $40 million. 25 tonnes will be required for $1 billion (Rs 6,400 crore). The government needs to target a quantity of 1000 tonne for an amount of $40 billion. This is 4-5% of the current holding of gold in India and should be easily possible.
This scheme will kill three birds with one stone. Unproductive gold in the hands of Indian’s will be converted into a productive financial asset, the government will be able to raise cheap long term money and the foreign exchange reserves will get a strong leg up. Given that the government will be able to realize around Rs 2, 50,000 crore in 10 year money it will also remove crowding out from the economy.
http://www.dnaindia.com/money/repor...ong-with-the-gold-monetisation-scheme-2094142
 
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