[h=1]Sasikala vs Panneerselvam: In Chennai's political match, Mannargudi defeats Tamil Nadu[/h]
Will the AIADMK survive the next four years and stay in power? It looks extremely difficult because there are too many factors that are not in its control.
One, It has a razor thin majority now. Any conflict and Palaniswami will have to ensure that he keeps the entire flock happy. Apart from cabinet berths, he will have to ensure the MLAs are rewarded with plum posts of chairmen of corporations.
But if an uprising of the kind one saw at the Marina happens, it will expose the faultlines within the ruling party. Because even if half a dozen MLAs rally against the government, it will bring Palaniswami within kissing distance of losing power. Such a government will always be prone to blackmail and threats. The CM will always have to lean on Dinakaran to keep unhappy lawmakers in check.
Two, an antagonistic relationship with the Centre. BJP leader Subramanian Swamy has gone on record to say two central ministers were showing an undue interest in Tamil Nadu affairs. It is an open secret that the BJP was not too pleased with the idea of Palaniswami taking over as CM and preferred Panneerselvam. But with the Sasikala camp closing ranks, the outside elements had to eat humble pie. Political revenge would be a matter of time.
Three, Palaniswami is from the powerful Gounder community that traditionally does not see eye to eye with the Thevars, the caste to which Sasikala and Dinakaran belong. The AIADMK despite being led by a Brahmin chief minister in Jayalalithaa was always known as a Thevar-dominated party and how the community MLAs react to the leadership of a Gounder will be its acid test. The future of the AIADMK will to a large extent depend on the equation between Thevar Dinakaran and Gounder Palaniswami.
Four, who holds the remote control? The perception that Palaniswami will make a trip to Bengaluru central prison before taking important decisions will undermine the government. He is seen as Sasikala's proxy with the shadow of Mannargudi over his government looming large.
Five, there is already talk of a youth movement demanding President's rule in Tamil Nadu. Should that happen and Palaniswami is forced to crush it using brute police force, it will further alienate him from the people. The chief minister needs to realise that the anger is not against him, but against Sasikala. The more it seems that Dinakaran is doing backseat driving, the more Palaniswami's mileage will fall.
Not that the AIADMK seems to understand this. Its Rajya Sabha MP Navneethakrishnan says Sasikala as party chief will "advise'' the government. That is perhaps because the interpretation of the result is different in the Sasikala camp.
Team Sasikala believes they are in fact, the real Chennai Super Kings who defeated Delhi Daredevils in the Tamil Nadu political league. How despite alleged attempts by forces outside Tamil Nadu to queer the pitch for Sasikala and company, she survived Panneerselvam's mutiny of 2017.
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