El Nino-likely effects on India.

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The meaning of El Nino​

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The Business Line​

Published on May 14, 2015​

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It is not a dire forecast, but one that calls for alertness​

El Nino— the warming of the Pacific Ocean leading to freakish weather all over the world— is once again in our midst after five years, according to Australia’s met department. This calls for a state of alert in India, but not one of alarm. How the south-west monsoon responds to El Nino is a bit of a mystery. And the impact of a deficient or erratic monsoon on crop output cannot be accurately predicted. As a paper put out by the Reserve Bank of India observes, strong El Nino years such as 1997-98 passed us by, whereas weak El Nino years such as 2002 caused more damage. It appears that a lot depends on which part of the Pacific gets heated up — if it is the central region, we are affected, as in 2002, but less so if it is the eastern part of the ocean. And if we are really lucky, a deficient monsoon year (El Nino or otherwise) may not cause a serious fall in output: for instance, the south-west monsoon was deficient by 22 per cent in 2009-10, but crop output declined only marginally. However, crop output declined significantly in 2000-01, despite a minor monsoon shortfall. Diversification to allied activities such as livestock rearing and fishing will help deal with the caprices of nature. Unseasonal rain in February-March this year along with a deficient monsoon in 2014 are set to lower foodgrain output for 2014-15 by 14 million tonnes. The Centre should be prepared for weather extremes by being ready with short duration seeds, apart from contingency measures. However, with foodgrain stocks at above 50 million tonnes, inflationary expectations can be checked. That said, an overall food inflation figure of 5.4 per cent for April masks a high inflation in pulses of 12 per cent. ‘Protein inflation’ may be related to prosperity, but it must be checked by taking long-term steps to raise output. According to the latest government estimates, pulses output is expected to fall by 12 per cent in 2014-15 over 2013-14, and wind up at 17.38 million tonnes. Add to this the possible impact of uneven rainfall this year on both protein and milk output, and prices could come under pressure. An increase of just three million tonnes in pulses output over the last decade points to endemic policy neglect. The farm schemes unveiled by this government deal essentially with irrigation; there is virtually no mention of pulses. A second ‘pulses mission’ is called for. However, any prospect of food inflation calls for a supply-side rather than monetary response. The government must promote diversified cropping, while not deviating from the agenda of marketing and distribution reforms. The ICAR should prioritise research on crops that can cope with weather extremes. Agriculture accounts for 14 per cent of the GDP but supports half the population. Its role as a growth driver should not be overlooked. El Nino will then hold fewer fears.[/TD]
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