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Study reveals 20 cities likely to be hit by terror attack:

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Study reveals 20 cities likely to be hit by terror attack:

May 22, 2015

A recent research conducted by global risk analytics company Verisk Maplecroft, which advises banks and insurers on the threat of a terror attack in almost any urban setting around the world, has put 64 cities across the world at extreme risk of an attack.


Surviving 380 terror attacks which left 1,141 people dead and 3,654 injured, Baghdad topped the list making it the world's highest risk urban centre, followed by Mosul, Al Ramadi, Ba’qubah, Kirkuk and Al Hillah. The research was done based on the intensity and frequency of attacksthat took place in these cities in the 12 months up to March 2015, and combined that with the longer-term record of attacks in the previous five years.


The research placed two Indian cities -- Imphal, ranked 32, and Srinagar, ranked 49 -- under 'extreme risk' of a terrorist attack. Chennai, at 176, is the third Indian city which is at a 'medium' risk of a terrorist attack.


Mumbai, Delhi and Kolkata have been categorised as "low risk" cities and were ranked at 298, 447 and 212, respectively. Head of Maplecroft India Arvind Ramakrishnan told The Times of India,


"When it comes to Imphal and Srinagar, terrorist attacks aren't on commercial targets as much as against the security forces. However n most of the other metropolitan cities, the targets are both to cause mass casualty and cripple its commercial hubs... lack of intelligence sharing among states is a big worry. Law and order is still a state subject in India and political rivalries across states leads to state intelligence agencies not sharing actionable data. India does not face threats from cross border terror organisations but also from home grown ones like the Indian Mujahideen."




Speaking to TOI, principal analyst of Verisk Maplecroft Charlotte Ingham said, "Just because a city in India hasn't seen a terrorist attack in a while does not mean it isn't potentially facing one. The rankings are based on the frequency and intensity of attacks."


Verisk Maplecroft analysed 1,300 of the world’s urban centers and ranked them based on the intensity and frequency of attacks in the past six years. Of the 64 cities placed under extreme risk, 27 are from Middle East and 19 are from Asia.


One country which dominated the list was Iraq. Two Middle Eastern countries and three cities of Pakistan (Peshawar, Quetta and Hassu Khel) figured in the top ten rankings of the research. Eight of the top 20 most targeted cities were in Iraq, including Mosul (2) and Ramadi (3), both of which are now controlled by Islamic State. The terror group recently captured the city of Ramadi forcing thousands to flee their homes.


In Europe, Belfast has been named as the most dangerous city. The study said Paris (97th and 'extreme risk') has experienced one of the steepest rises in the ranking following the Charlie Hebdo terror attack in January 2015 that left 17 people dead.


"The risk level in Paris is representative of a wider trend for Western countries, including Belgium, Canada and Australia, where the level of risk in key urban centres is substantially higher than elsewhere in the country, in part due to the significant PR value attached to such high profile targets by militant Islamist groups," the study noted.


New York, the target of the 9/11 terror attacks, was deemed 369th most dangerous city in the world. Two other, surprisingly unlikely, US cities, ranked above New York: Las Vegas, which was ranked 184 in the world, and Kansas City at 190. All three US cities were well out of the 'extreme risk' category, The Time reported.


Of those 64 at extreme risk of a terrorist attack, 12 are capital cities including Egypt’s Cairo, Abuja in Nigeria, Nairobi in Kenya and Pakistan’s Islamabad.


Several global trends have left their mark on the terror risk list. While isolated events like the Charlie Hebdo attack affected rankings, the rise of extremist groups like IS, Boko Haram, and Al Shabab, landed a number of cities on the list. Some 14 African cities are now at increased risk of violence due to the political instability and violence wrought by the militant groups Boko Haram and Al Shabab, a report in The Independent said.


"It is the risk posed by terrorism in the primary cities of strategic economies, such as Egypt, Israel, Kenya, Nigeria, and Pakistan that has the potential to threaten business and supply chain continuity," the firm said in a statement, with principal analyst Charlotte Ingham adding, "An estimated 80% of global GDP is generated from cities."

Study reveals 20 cities likely to be hit by terror attack: Imphal, Srinagar in high risk category - Firstpost
 
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