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The cashless economy of Chikalthana-A diatribe against demonetisation

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Am sure this tirade will stop once cash becomes freely available...We expect goods to get cheaper, black money in real estate coming down, strong action being taken against the hoarders...We expect people moving to online in a big way...No more currency shortages within a month or max 2...This is worth a reading to understand pain & anguish in rural India...Or this is just a rebuke by a Leftist against the Government/


The cashless economy of Chikalthana

The government’s demonestisation has devastated farmers, landless labourers, pensioners, petty traders and many others across Maharashtra

Nov. 16, 2016 | P. Sainath

In Chikalthana village, on the edge of and merging with Aurangabad town in Maharashtra, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s dream of a cashless economy seems to have been realised. Nobody has any cash. Not the banks, nor the ATMs and certainly not the people queuing up in and around them in despair. Even the policemen sitting in the vans outside bank branches haven’t any.
But cheer up. They’ll soon have ink marks on their fingers.
In the State Bank of Hyderabad (SBH) at Shahganj within the walled city of Aurangabad, you can see equally desperate bank staff struggling to help their impoverished clients. There and in other branches of every single bank in the town, soiled notes worth crores of rupees in denominations of Rs. 50 and Rs.100 – meant to be sent to the Reserve Bank of India for final destruction – are being reintroduced into circulation. The RBI knows of this but condones it through silence.
“What option do we have?” ask people working in these banks. “The public really needs small notes now. All their work and transactions have come to a halt.” As we speak to the staff inside, Javeed Hayat Khan, a small vendor, comes up to us from a queue that runs close to a kilometre outside the bank, on a Sunday. He hands us an invitation to his daughter Rasheda Khatoon’s wedding. “All I have in my account is Rs. 27,000,” he says. “All I ask for is Rs. 10,000 of that for my daughter’s wedding coming up in three weeks. And I’m not allowed to withdraw it.” The bank held back since he had withdrawn Rs. 10,000 the previous day, though he is entitled to take out the same sum today. Because they feel there isn’t enough cash to go around the serpentine queues. And they hope to give some small amount to each person in those lines. A couple of them are now trying to help Khan. They point out that such money as he has in his account came from breaking a fixed deposit he had set up for his daughter’s marriage.

As several writers, analysts and official reports have already pointed out, the bulk of India’s ‘black’ economy is held in bullion, benami land deals, and foreign currency. Not in stacks of notes in grandma’s old oak chest. The chairman of the Central Board of Direct Taxes said so in a 2012 report on Measures to tackle black money in India and abroad. The report also said (page 14, Part II, 9.1) demonetisation “miserably failed" on two past occasions in 1946 and 1978. Yet, this action is what the Bharatiya Janata Party government has repeated. The ‘Modi masterstroke’, a term contrived by assorted anchors and other clowns on television to hail an unbelievably stupid action, is spreading agony and misery in its wake across the countryside. If there’s been any stroke, it’s the one the heart of the rural economy has suffered. The recovery time from the stroke was first dismissed by the finance minister and his party colleagues as 2-3 days of discomfort. Dr. Jaitley then modified that to 2-3 weeks. Soon after, his senior surgeon, Narendra Modi, said he needed 50 days to restore the patient to health. So we’re already into 2017 with this course of treatment. Meanwhile, we do not know how many people across the country have died waiting in queues, but their number mounts daily.
“In Lasalgaon in Nashik district, farmers driven by the cash crunch closed down the onion markets,” says Nishikant Bhalerao, editor of the weekly Adhunik Kisan. “In Vidarbha and Marathwada, cotton prices have plummeted by 40 per cent per quintal.” Barring a few transactions, sales have come to a halt. “No one has any cash. Commission agents, producers and buyers alike are in serious trouble,” says Jaideep Hardikar, a reporter with The Telegraph in Nagpur. “Depositing cheques in the rural branches was always a tedious process and right now, withdrawal is a nightmare.”
So, very few farmers will accept cheques. How can their households function while waiting for those to be realised? Many others simply do not have active bank accounts.
One important public sector bank in this state has a total of 975 ATMs across the country. Of these, 549 were serving up no denomination other than despair. Most of those non-functioning ATMs are in rural areas. A particularly cynical rationalisation of the impact is the claim that “rural areas function on credit. Cash means nothing.” Really? It means everything.
Transactions at the lowest levels are overwhelmingly in cash. Bank employees in small rural branches foresee a law and order crisis if small denomination cash doesn’t arrive in a week. Others say the crisis is already here and will not abate even if some cash arrives in that time.
At another queue in Aurangabad, Pervez Paithan, a construction supervisor, fears his labourers will soon turn violent. “They need to be paid for work already done,” he says. “But I cannot lay my hands on cash.” In Chikalthana village, Rais Akhtar Khan says she and other young mothers like her are finding it increasingly difficult to feed their children. When they do, “it is after great delays because we are spending so much of our day in these queues. The children go hungry for hours after their normal eating time.”
Most women in the queues say they have 2-4 days of provisions left. They’re terrified to think the cash flow problem might not be resolved in that time. Alas, it will not be.
Farmers, landless labourers, domestic servants, pensioners, petty traders, all these and many other groups have taken a terrible hit. Several including those employing workers will go into debt, borrowing money to pay off wages. With some others, it’s to buy food. “Our queues are growing, not diminishing, with each passing day,” says a staffer at the Station Road branch of SBH in Aurangabad. Here a few employees are trying to cope with huge and increasingly angry queues of people. One staffer points out a flaw in the software sent out for the authentication of ID and other details.
People are allowed to exchange a maximum of eight notes of Rs. 500 or four of Rs. 1,000 for two of Rs. 2,000 in value. This is a one-time transaction. “Yes, it does trip you up if you try duplicating your act the next day. But you can get around that. Just use a different ID. If today you use your Aadhaar card, tomorrow bring your passport and the day after that, your PAN card, you can repeat the transaction without detection.”
Now, very few people have actually done this. Most are unaware of it. But the government’s response borders on the insane. They’ve decided to start marking the fingers of the people in the queues (post-exchange) with indelible ink as they do in voting. On a right-hand finger so there is no confusion when people vote in by-elections coming up in some states. “Never mind what orders or instructions government might issue,” says R. Patil, a small contractor, in the Station Road queue. “The fact is most of the hospitals and pharmacies do not entertain the 500 or 1,000 rupee notes.” Standing beside him is Syed Modak, a carpenter who had run from clinic to clinic to save a seriously ill relative. “We were turned down everywhere,” he says. “Either they don’t accept the couple of Rs. 2,000 notes or say they have no change to give us.”
Meanwhile, all eyes are on Nashik from where the newly-printed currency will go out – across India. No one’s got it yet in the rural regions, but all pin their hopes on its happening. Watch this space.



https://ruralindiaonline.org/articles/the-cashless-economy-of-chikalthana/
 
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Another one lamenting that poor have been given a short shrift!!

Last Modified: Thu, Nov 17 2016. 03 47 AM IST
No, the poor aren’t sleeping peacefully

The rich and the middle class have their digital wallets and credit cards; they can afford to wait two weeks, even 50 days, for their money to be exchanged


Salil Tripathi



One has to be astonishingly callous or exceptionally removed from reality to think that the poor are sleeping peacefully and only the rich are frightened, needing sleeping pills in the wake of the great currency-exchange drama playing out in India. For that’s what it is; old notes are being replaced with new, and a new note of even higher value is being added.
But the fantasy description of blissfully asleep poor and terrified rich is just that—a fantasy. Even a quick look at the videos being circulated of the people queueing up to change their money shows their frustration and anxiety; and even if they aren’t below poverty line, they aren’t rich.
Indeed, the rich and the middle class have their digital wallets and credit cards; they can afford to wait two weeks, even 50 days, for their money to be exchanged. It is the day-wage labourers who suffer—three of whom are given a Rs1,000 note to cover their wages; the security guard who needs smaller bills with which to pay a hospital which would otherwise not do an MRI scan of his seven-year-old son who has a lung disease, and who breaks down; the children on the street who sell toys and flowers and pirated books but no longer earn enough to eat because nobody has the small change to buy their meagre offerings; they bear the burden of the sloppy planning.
Indeed, black money is a real problem. But statistics show that only a small part of it is kept in cash—by some accounts, 6%. Black money resides abroad too, but a large amount of it sits in India, as gold deposits, as land banks, as benami assets. Focusing on cash is like trying to catch the tiger by his tail.
There is also the question of what constitutes high-value currency. Indeed, currency notes of Rs500 and Rs1,000 are of the highest value in India, but they constitute more than 80% of the value of currency in circulation. When the Janata Party demonetized notes valued at Rs5,000 and Rs10,000, the amounts were worth about $640 and $1,280, respectively, at approximately Rs7.8 a dollar. Today’s “high” value notes are worth $7.38 (Rs500) and $14.75 (Rs1,000), respectively. That is still a lot of money for those who are absolutely poor, but those amounts aren’t high value for what they can buy.
And despite the efforts of banks and successive governments, a large part of India is still unbanked; an overwhelmingly large proportion of transactions—by some accounts, 90%—takes place in cash; smart technology notwithstanding, Internet connectivity in rural India (even parts of urban India) remains spotty, and there are too few automated teller machines for a country of India’s size and a very small proportion can be found in rural India. And the ones that exist aren’t designed to handle such intense use, most of them aren’tconfigured to slot the new Rs2,000 notes—which do not have microchips.
The government has sucked in liquidity from the country for the ostensibly laudable—but apparent—aim of eradicating black money, which has unnerved the poor who simply do not have the “working capital”—cash reserves—to tide over what is uncaringly referred to as “temporary inconvenience”. Yes, people are looking after each other and using barter, trusting customers and neighbours, and living on credit. But that’s relying on the kindness of strangers. Indians do it all the time. When there is a cyclone, neighbours look after each other because the State hasn’t reached the remote areas. But this is a cyclone caused by the State, whose responsibility is to protect the people, not to place them at a greater risk.
The prime minister feels the pain, but it is his own pain. His voice breaks and he says dramatically that the forces he has taken on may not let him live. Meanwhile, by one estimate, 33 Indians have died due to stress, heart attack, or anxiety; there is a report of at least one suicide. Each of those deaths was avoidable.
We don’t know what the economic consequences of this exercise will be. But if liquidity is drained off temporarily as a shock measure and then re-injected, there is no guarantee that the small businesses which have collapsed will be the ones which will get revived. Economic experiments are fine in safe lab conditions, on spreadsheets, in classroom simulations. But in the real world, ceteris isn’t paribus; other things don’t remain equal. To fault the poor for not having an Aadhaar card or a Jan Dhan account only adds insult to their injury.
Callousness abounds: the Maharashtra chief minister decides that old notes can be spent on seeing theatre even as the poor go hungry because those notes are worthless to buy food. Juvenal admonished ancient Romans for caring only about panem et circenses (bread and circuses). The Maharashtra leader reaches lower depths, ignoring the bread, offering circus. “People die in ration lines too,” say Bharatiya Janata Party leaders, failing to note the irony of having rationed people’s own hard-earned savings.
It is trite to quote M.K. Gandhi, but in the days before he died, he wrote a talisman for spiritual freedom of the vulnerable. What would he have said today? Perhaps this: “Whenever you are in doubt, apply the following test. Recall the face of the poorest and the weakest Indian whom you may have seen, and ask yourself, if the step you contemplate is going to be of any use to him or her. Will he or she gain anything by it? Will it restore to him or her a control over his or her own life and destiny? Then you will find your doubts and your self melt away.”

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/u5tLpMWLTyhqjQ590pqG5L/No-the-poor-arent-sleeping-peacefully.html
 
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Vganeji,

I am SHOCKED. Not at the news but that you posted some facts even though it is against the MODi Government and its implementation,

Wow.
 
The small businesses - from vegetable vendors to dhabas and small kirana stores - were the worst hit.

Banks still struggle to manage huge rush of people thronging branches across the country to exchange invalid currency notes and get cash to meet their daily needs.Despite some ATMs getting calibrated to dispense Rs 500 notes, such vending machines are running out of cash because of huge pressure of withdrawal.

Queues at some branches in the metros cities were seen slightly shorter for exchange of old currencies as the process of putting indelible ink has started from yesterday. As a result of this, those who have already exchanged old currency notes are unable to interchange again on the same day due to the ink mark.

At the same time, the ATM recalibration exercise is also going on so that higher denomination currency notes are dispensed as soon as possible.
With the government and RBI struggling to ease cash availability, the small businesses - from vegetable vendors to dhabas and small kirana stores - that use cash as mode of transaction were the worst hit.

A bulk of daily labourers were rendered jobless as construction and other activities came to a standstill in the wake of cement, sand and other supplies not coming in.
Truckers too were reportedly stranded on highways as drivers ran out of valid currency notes, affecting movement of goods in several parts of the country.
Meanwhile, the government today announced many measures, including ease of restriction for cash withdrawal by farmers and wedding family.

At the same time, it has lowered the exchange limit for defunct notes to Rs 2,000 from the existing cap of Rs 4,500, effective tomorrow.
The over-the-counter exchange of Rs 500/1,000 in return of new currency will be available once per person till December 30.

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/nati...grapple-with-huge-rush-most-atms-run-dry.html
 
[h=1]7 Reasons Why Demonetization Is A Masterstroke By Modi[/h]I emphatically welcome the government's decision to demonetize ₹500 and ₹1000 currency notes in circulation in the economy as bold and revolutionary, and one that will have tectonic impact on the ubiquitous parallel economy in the country. The move will significantly strengthen the government's systematic efforts (including special investigation team on black money, amending DTAA with Mauritius and Cyprus, amending the Benami Transactions Act, and the more recent Income Declaration Scheme) over the last two years to curb black money in the economy.

In a single master stroke, the government has attempted to tackle all three malaises plaguing the economy—a parallel economy, counterfeit currency and terror financing.


With the latest move, it is reasonably clear that the economy stands to benefit on several fronts:
[h=3]1. Boost deposit base and savings[/h]Global agencies have pegged the size of the parallel economy in India at close to 23% as of 2007. Basis this, we estimate unaccounted cash in the economy to the tune of ₹4500 billion, of which a certain significant proportion will make its way to the banks, thus boosting deposit base as well as financial savings:

Popular In the Community


  • The banks' deposit base is expected to receive a fillip of 0.5-1.4% of GDP.
  • In turn, financing savings can be expected to rise by close to this proportion due to switch from savings from unproductive physical assets to financial assets.
[h=3]2. Improve monetary transmission and reduce lending rates[/h]
  • A rise in deposit base will allow banks to lower the blended cost of funds as higher CASA (current accounts, savings accounts) deposits help to replace the high cost of borrowing and lower overall cost of funds. We expect banks to reduce deposit rates by ~125 bps over the next six months.
  • The new regime of MCLR (Marginal Cost of Funds based Lending Rate )will immediately take into account the lower cost and will thereby lead to a decline in lending rates, which will boost economic activity in the medium term.
[h=3]3. Create room for further monetary accommodation[/h]
  • With improved monetary transmission, economic efficiency and structural moderation in currency in circulation, there is likely to be a greater room for the RBI to ease monetary policy rate further. I am hopeful that the RBI will ease by another 100 bps in 2017-18 to a repo rate of 4% by March 2018.

Read more at: http://www.huffingtonpost.in/rana-kapoor/7-reasons-why-demonetization-is-a-masterstroke-by-modi/
 
Vganeji,

I am SHOCKED. Not at the news but that you posted some facts even though it is against the MODi Government and its implementation,

Wow.

Prasadji,

The people of India brought Shri Modi to power......90% of people still feel Modi is right in banning high denomination notes...But execution is slack...This could have been better managed...I am just giving contrarian views...I do not support these 2 articles...Hence I called it a diatribe
 
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Are only the poor targeted...No way..The rich farmers who were hoarding cash now have to declare their income and pay taxes!!

[h=1]Demonetisation: 'Petty fortunes are being targeted'[/h]

November 22, 2016 08:23

Describing the Indian government's demonetisation steps as the "most sweeping changes in currency policy in the world in decades", a top global economist has said without new measures, this is "unlikely to have lasting benefits" and that it has resulted in "chaos and loss of trust in the government".


"Like everyone else, we were surprised by the dramatic action taken by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to demonetise the existing Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes. This is by far the most sweeping change in currency policy that has occurred anywhere in the world in decades," Lawrence 'Larry' Summers, a former chief economist of the World Bank and ex-economic advisor to the US President, said in a blog.


In his blog, Summers said most free societies would rather let several criminals go free than convict an innocent man.


"In the same way, for the government to expropriate from even a few innocent victims who, for one reason or another, do not manage to convert their money, is highly problematic," the blog said.


"We strongly suspect that those with the largest amount of ill-gotten gain do not hold their wealth in cash but instead, have long since converted it into foreign exchange, gold, bitcoin or some other store of value. So it is petty fortunes, not the hugest and most problematic ones, that are being targeted," Summers wrote.

http://news.rediff.com/commentary/2...ing-targeted/45e104bc20e1e211ba2056eae914923b
 
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