Indian Stock Market

[Janaki Jambunathan]

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I expect the Govt. to announce the DA due on July to be announced immediately - speculated to be 5% - to put some money in the pocket of Govt. Servants to enhance their buying capacity for Diwali A short term booster to consumption!

 

[krish44]

Something more is needed to boost consumption by middle class.

Corporate have been given a bonanza in terms of Tax relief of 10% making it 25% as maximum and there are GST cuts

for hotels.

Why not make the hotels cut room tafiff and food rates ? This will increase occupancy of hotels and lower the

cost of stay and food for holidaying middle class at dussehra and diwali.

Hotels and airlines jack up rates during festival season.There needs to be some pro people measures in these

days of ever increasing cost of living and higher food prices.

Eating out is becoming a luxury.

 

[krish44]

Giving a boost to the corporate india with tax cuts thinking that efforts of these corporate for better performance will

ultimately have trickle down

effect that will benefit the common man appears foolhardy.

Instead 1.45 lakh crores could have been given directly to people thru reducing 28 and 18% gst to 12% and

less,and putting more money in hands of people to enable spending on consumer goods and other items of

consumption.

Measures like abolishing dividend distribution tax for retail investors and foregoing tax from middle class wage

earners could have helped kick starting spending by majority of them.

Now the govt will get blamed only as being pro capitalists and anti poor for rewarding the corporate india.

The result will show up in elections sooner or later.

 

[Jaykay767]

Agree the corporate tax cuts are foolhardy specially when our fiscal deficit and bank NPAs are so bad !! That too massive 1.46 lakh crore tax hole every year !!

In the current fiscal situation, I would not do either - ie no tax cuts for corporate nor for personal income tax. Simply because this govt has no money, they are delayed in paying salaries and abvsoutely zero funds for the flood affected victims. Despite state govts repeatedly asking for flood relief, there is none.

in this situation, the only option is to "pay off the fiscal deficit" to the extent of 1.45 lakh crores where the majority of the borrowings are internal and with psu banks. So reduce fiscal deficit and also fund the banks with this approach. Banks with this money would have funded the nbfcs as part of normal businesses and eased the liquidity crisis which would have allowed them to loan more people for buying cars, houses, etc..reviving demand !!

But as always, our govt has never listened to common sensical approach but more on managing headlines !!! They just want to see the headlines that next quarter GDP growth is now 10% !! LOL

 

[tbs]

hi

i think...demonetisation/GST confusions are main reason for downturn of indian economy....especially in housing

and auto sector....even global economical problems may not much affect on indian economy....becoz indians

are more much purchasing power...

 

[Jaykay767]

hi

i think...demonetisation/GST confusions are main reason for downturn of indian economy....especially in housing

and auto sector....even global economical problems may not much affect on indian economy....becoz indians

are more much purchasing power...

Absolutely and needless self goals even when all and sundry warned the govt not to do it. And then series of blundering steps which does very little to fix the economy , but can do more damageto our fiscal deficit goals !!

All citizens are worried and talking about how to run the economy correctly except the govt ! And we have a bunch of people here complaining and whining that people in this forum are criticing their beloved govt !

 

[krish44]

IRCTC has come out with an IPO of face value rs10 with price band rs 315-320 with retail discount of 10%.

Likely to be over subscribed.

Also divestment of BPCL,CONCOR,SCI are on the cards.

Buying these, retail investors may not regret.

SBI shares are steadily going down . Buying in 250-260 range might be worth it.

Equally interesting are swachha bharat aiding script VA tech Wabag.

Buy Rain industries if it touches below Rs 90.

Buy only in cash market.Avoid futures and options.

 

[krish44]

RBI governor has come up with a repo rate cut of 25 basis points making it a total of 140 for the year. The repo

rate is 5.15. now, the FD rates of banks will get further lowered. Retd will feel the pain.

The rate cuts are not getting transmitted to those availing loans.So borrowers will continue to suffer.

Unless real estate sector improves ,the NBFCs will continue to languish.Affordable housing projects are not

getting buyers.

Automobiles are not getting sold inspite of lower prices. and discount offers

Mostly most are sticking to gold ETF and gold purchases.

Food inflation is high with onions getting hoarded.The poor are likely to get hurt more.

The govt appears helpless as they have no answers for economic downturn.

Opposition is unable to get its act together.

So common man cannot expect much .

 

[Jaykay767]

Spot on. Seniors are already feeling the pain and it will become worse now.

Sariyana Padam for the Bakths and supporters who voted for this govt. I mean how can this motley group of unqualified people run the country ? We are moving from one crisis to another, and the Bakths are giving some Kathai or other to justify this disaster,

Adiyadha Madu Padiyadhu... This if for you Bakths, !! LoL

 

[krish44]

One way out is to raise income tax exemption limits for middle class to 12 lakhs pa and cutting GST to only 2

slabs of 5 and 12%.This will put money in the hands of people which they may spend to boost the economy.

Over taxing will only lead to more misery and possible evasion.

There is a need to increase the minimum pension for seniors to atleast rs 3000 pm.

 

[Janaki Jambunathan]

Adiyadha Madu Padiyadhu(#59)

Typical "ரெட்ட மாடு" legacy ! Bull should take over the market and should welcome it.
Pigs get slaughtered politically as well !

Stock market is not அலங்காநல்லூர் ஜல்லிக்கட்டு where bulls are tamed!

நல்ல மாட்டுக்கு ஒரு சூடு !

 

[Janaki Jambunathan]

Inflation is good when it is mild. There are two situations where this occurs. The first is when inflation makes consumers expect prices to continue rising. When prices are going up, people will buy now rather than pay more later. This increases demand in the short term. As a result, stores sell more and factories produce more now. They are more likely to hire new workers to meet demand. It creates a virtuous cycle, boosting economic growth.

 

[krish44]

There is no economics at festival time . When wife spends , husband pays obediently.inflation or no inflation.

One can see the rush in saree and jewellery shops .LOL

 

[Janaki Jambunathan]

Spending is a stimulus to get out of slump - even if it is because of nudging wife! When there is no spending deflation gets in! Wifeக்கு " ஓ போடு".

 

[krish44]

Which banks are safe for FDs . After PMC muddle all banks have become suspect.

The safe appear to be HDFC bank and axis bank.

SBI though safe is not known for good service.

Best distribute in several banks ignoring interest rates. Safety of capital is more important.

Adhoc changes in interest rates downwards with changes in repo downward is likely to hurt senior citizen who

mostly live

on FD interest.

It required a statement fro RBI to stop the downward spiral of yes bank shares when it went as low as Rs 30

. Now it has returned to 41-42.

Banks like RBL with rural bias got badly hurt after run on PMC .

Banking system is facing a crisis of confidence.

Hopefully sanity will return and bank shares falling on rumours will end.

All established institutions are facing a credibility crisis.

 

[Janaki Jambunathan]

I have reasons to be concerned about every information on Yes Bank I watch with வெளக்கெண்ணெய் in my eyes especially this one-

Gill said the bank has had "informal conversations on a no-names-basis" with the RBI on the proposed infusion and he expects the central bank to take a "reasonable" decision.
"In future banks will become technology companies with a banking licence," he said, while enlisting the advantages of such a transaction taking place.

These (tech) companies are feeling Yes Bank is digitally savvy, 'platformised' better and is also available for cheap valuation now," Gill said.

"The two things that we need to address is the single ownership for a equity holder and the second thing is, how comfortable would they (RBI) be with an unconventional/non- conventional investor coming into the bank," he said.

What is he hinting?

Reliance is moving away from petro to Jio They have shown interest in Banking even applied for license for Payment bank - could be Mukesh Ambani ?

Possible!

 

[krish44]

Every time a change takes place in YES bank, the share takes a knock.

When Rana transferred his stake to vijay [Paytm] it crashed to 30rs.

If one more investor gets added gets added, it will be volatile again.

It hardly matters who it is.

I dread even to take a FD in yes bank even though the interest rate might be attractive.

Many of the employees of the company off loaded their shares when the stock went down last time.

Banks like yes bank, IDBI,idea first bank will always remain suspect in the eyes of the small investor.

It is OK for short time speculation and day traders.

My share broker - a traditional south indian brokerage does not allow me to invest in these without

first ensuring my credit worthiness

and my ability to take losses.

 

[Janaki Jambunathan]

Swaminathan Aiyer wrote in one of his blogs,:

When private sector banks were allowed to open in the 1990s, some economists thought big industrialists were the obvious candidates. But businesses are potential borrowers, and so should not control lending institutions: that creates an obvious conflict of interest.

May be he is right -

But RBI should take a call! RBI has not decided on Lakshmi Vilas Bank yet!

 

[Janaki Jambunathan]

Banks like yes bank, IDBI,idea first bank will always remain suspect in the eyes of the small investor.
My share broker - a traditional south indian brokerage does not allow me to invest in these(#67)

Rule of Thumb - Don't bank on banks ! 'Scheduled' Banks - wouldn't touch them with bargepole !

 

[krish44]

I am wondering what is going wrong with indian economy.Macros -inflation under control, Repo rates at all

time low,oil prices moderating downwards, Rupee stable around rs71 to dollar. Yet there is gloom and

economic slowdown is not getting corrected.There may be minor spike in consumer demand due to festival

sales Next month again the slowdown will persist.One may speculate if it is any foreign unknown factor.

What should one do now? Most depositors are losing faith in the banking system and RBI. The mess in rural

banking and difficulties faced by micro finance companies like RBL, failure of PMC bank is making people

believe in rumours and dumping shares. You have india bullhousing finance, lakshmivilas bank facing

difficulties, yes bank looking to foreign houses to raise money DHFL sliding down reinforce the thought that

something is not right.Indusind bank sliding down repeatedly with bank assuring that there is nothing wrong is

puzzling.

After the initial euphoria when FM cut corporate taxes, medium and small entities have lost their gains. Only

large players with high market capitalisation seem to have got some benefit.

Rural economy has not revived. and rural spending is not picking up.Manufacturing companies are still

licking their wounds. Maruti,auto ancillaries are down.No one is going towards housing .

So what next?

 

[Janaki Jambunathan]

What is he hinting?
Reliance is moving away from petro to Jio They have shown interest in Banking even applied for license for Payment bank - could be Mukesh Ambani ? (#66)
Cat is out of the bag!
It is Microsoft and not Reliance as I speculated !

Yes Bank woos Microsoft, two other tech firms for a strategic investment

Yes Bank could sell as much as 15% through a fresh equity issuance if the talks are productive.The ailing lender has said that it doesn’t mind if raising capital results in a large stake dilution

www.livemint.com

 

[Jaykay767]

This is the contagion that many of us talked about which our Bakths and supporters refused to accept.

Demo and GST lead to millions of businesses to shutdown over a 2 yr period, all across the country. And this in turn lead to massive joblessness. Hence the spending reduced dramatically as families began to cut back heavily.

And even those who were still gainfully employed,cut back seeing their neighbours in such trouble.

And the crooks , shut down their existing businesses and completely went underground as full black money business evading all scrutiny from the income tax department. And they also deliberately defaulted on their bank loans, in this process, leading to massive NPAs. Of course scores of businesses closing down also led to legitamte NPAs as the companies could not repay due to business loss.

Hence we are in a deep depression and hence this will take years to rebuild and in the meanwhile, many more companies will go down, and new ones if any will only spring up over many years. That's why I shifted all my money long back to foreign banks, and some know I have one leg here and another across the continent. LoL.

Well, people wanted pakodanomics, and we have got one now !! LoL

 

[Jaykay767]

Only direction the stocks will go is down, fully short on the market ! And with junk policies of this junk govt, nothing will change. So tread carefully, don't be long in this market, unless the new policies change the ground game dramativally

 

[krish44]

What Next?

Genuine attempt to revive spending by cutting down on income tax with zero tax upto about Rs 12000

Reducing GST across the board having only two slabs of 5 and 12% for all items and services

These minimal measures will put money in hands of people to spend and increase demand and economy will

pick up.

Stop scrutiny for small tax payers .

There is need to stop stranglehold on these on genuine small businesses and MSME.

Ensure easy credit to SHG in villages

Increase minimum support prices to agricultural products .

Privatise fast PSUs to bring govt share holding to 51%.

All these are easily possible.

 

[tbs]

What Next?

Genuine attempt to revive spending by cutting down on income tax with zero tax upto about Rs 12000

Reducing GST across the board having only two slabs of 5 and 12% for all items and services

These minimal measures will put money in hands of people to spend and increase demand and economy will

pick up.

Stop scrutiny for small tax payers .

There is need to stop stranglehold on these on genuine small businesses and MSME.

Ensure easy credit to SHG in villages

Increase minimum support prices to agricultural products .

Privatise fast PSUs to bring govt share holding to 51%.

All these are easily possible.

hi

this drama goes on.....cutting/increasing.....in DEMO periods....removing 500 /1000 notes and adding

2000 notes.....no logic at alll......something happened for somebody....