Elections 2014: Eight takeaways from BJP?s biggest win - The Economic Times
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The 2014 poll results underscore one point: there is no such thing as a predictable election in India. Everyone expected
Narendra Modi to form the new government but the scale of his victory and the decimation of the
Congress Party has stunned most observers. These elections will join the 1977 and 1989 polls as the most significant in India's history.
Here are some key takeaways from the electoral battlefield.
1. Narendra Modi gets the biggest mandate since 1984: Modi has emerged as the strongest political leader in India in the last 30 years. Not since Rajiv Gandhi's 400 seat plus performance in 1984, has a party won so many seats. Some will argue that Rajiv's victory was the
result of the sympathy wave generated by Indira Gandhi's death, and Modi is infact poised to be India's tallest political leader since the original Mrs G.
2. BJP emerges as India's national party as the Congress Party gets decimated : There is nothing any longer Grand about India's Grand Old party. It is just an old party now. Its worst ever performance leaves it stunned and rudderless. The BJP in contrast is now a party which dominates the north and has made strong advances in just every state and region of India. It no longer need allies in large parts of India, as it did in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The challenge for the party is now to consolidate its advances.
3. The rejection of Rahul Gandhi and the dynasty: The Congress party will never admit it but it will be almost impossible for Rahul Gandhi to bounce back from here. He might hold on to Amethi, and but in his heart of hearts Rahul will know that he has been decisively rejected by the people of India. The Nehru-Gandhi family has suffered its biggest electoral setback ever, its mystique lies in tatters, and it is facing the biggest challenge to its relevance.
4. The absence of opposition and the electoral demise of the regional satraps: Its not just the Congress that has been vanquished. This will be the first time since 1984 that there will not be a strong opposition in the Lok Sabha. With the exception of
Mamata Banerjee and Jayalalitha, the regional satraps have been marginalised.
Mayawati, Mulayam, Karunanidhi,
Nitish Kumar,
Sharad Pawar, and Lalu Yadav have all had to bite the dust.
5. The end of the Mandal era. India has returned to one party rule for the first time since 1984. This is because for the last quarter of a century, the politics of caste and reservations has dominated the Hindi heartland. For the last 25 years, India has had a succession of coalition governments because two of its most populous states- UP and Bihar -- have preferred regional and caste leaders over the two national parties. Modi's greatest success in this election is that he has busted the Mandal formula.
6. Presidential style of politics works in India. If the message is clear and the leader is strong, presidential style of politics can be very effective. Modi created the campaign around himself, pitched his appeal directly to the people, and tapped into India's deep yearning for a strong leader. He chose the high
risk strategy of making the election a referendum for himself and won. This used to be Indira Gandhi's strategy as well.
7. Its about the ecoonomy, stupid. A victory of this magnitude can not be explained through the prism of caste and religion. To be sure, the religion card was used in some parts, most notably UP, but this is a mandate for jobs, growth and prosperity. The UPA won a second term in 2009 because it was able to deliver on these parameters. It lost today because it failed miserably on these counts in the last five years.
8. The people of India won't settle for less. The challenge for the entire political class is to keep pace with the rising aspirations of the Indian people. Sops and doles will no longer do. You can no longer announce some great schemes and rest on your laurels. The people expects their leaders to better their lot every day. And they want to see results. Modi is right. They want sevaks, not shaasaks. Its important for him to remember his promise. Else, he will have to bear the consequences in 2019
