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Pralayam Pralayam Pralayam – Tsunami Impact of Demonetization - Sayonara India !!

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Most of the economists, people, and opposition warned against the tsunami impact of demonetization, but the Govt, & its cohorts –large segment of Indians, Media, News papers columnists etc.. doggedly supported this move like the rats led by the pied piper !!

As usual, I warned the folks on this forum & our heroes on this forum were more confident of the uneducated leaders thanBrilliant economists, like most people in this country! And these people were shouting down all the opponents on social media, etc.. as though they had found the fountain of money due to the demonetization … LOL !

Lets analyze the impact & see why we are truly in a Pralayam situation!

Construction, Textile, Auto, Cement, Agri, FMCG etc.. Industries have all collapsed due to the sudden withdrawal of cash in the informal sector leading to widespread contagion!

Crores of Jobs were lost in the informal sector &entire auto sales & food, consumption have collapsed. Now the informal sector collapse is hitting the formal sector (economy does not realize formal & informal sector ..LOL)- & IT jobs are disappearing along with the educated fools & their silly twitter accounts.. LOL !!

Apart from this, the Income tax authorities are going after all the small businesses on black money, so they are more worried about this, than get back to running the businesses.

All building constructions are totally dependent on PSU/Co-operativeBank Loans. Similarly all manufacturers like Textile, Auto, etc.. have huge bank loans.

For nearly 7 months now, none of them have paid the bank loans, as the businesses came to a standstill. So the Bank NPAs have skyrocketed from 2 lakh Crores to 8 Lakh crores leading to dire crisis on the entire banking system.

Our famous Govt is now like the Satyam company, where Raju realized the entire company is bankrupted, but fooled everyone, saying –everything is alright, wait for some more, we will get additional deals, &we will make a lot of money, honey, etc.. LOL !!

So the Govt has fooled & fooling everyone saying – it is a great sacrifice, just hang on for some more time, the economy will recover, & we will all be singing & dancing in the fountain of money !!LOL !!

But how can the economy recover & pay back the 6 lakh crores additional NPA ?, when all the small scale manufacturers have closed their businesses, & let go all the employees ?, can the bank lend more money to builders who have not paid 7 months bank loan & need more cash to complete the building ??

None of the people are buying anything now, no new cars,scooters, houses, etc.. & due to the negative sentiment due to news reportson 2.65 lakh IT job loss, not to mention the crores in the informal sector..

Also they are seeing their neighbors, friends losing jobs in the informal economy, the folks in formal economy also have totally clamed up !! Also Indians by nature are very conservative compared to the west, so adding to this mess !!

In short, the bank collapse is imminent due to the enormous bad debt & no chance of an economic recovery. Stock market rally is a fake rally conducted by out Govt, like our Satyam Raju & will lose its bottom once Banks cannot honor their cheques !! Post demonetization in Soviet Union, the currency collapsed completely in 3 quarters – 9 months !!

India will descend into crisis, food shortages, looting across the cities, & entire administration will collapse as people will start rioting for food & money!!

Of course, the best course of option is to migrate abroad!!! fools have destroyed the country finally by allowing mediocrity, criminals,etc into power & supporting them for 70+ yrs !!

Finally, as our ancients say – Vinasha kale ViparithaBuddhi – Gods first make the people mad before they destroy them!!

Sayonara folks!!
 
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As always, please desist from personal attacks, any such kirk comment will be responded in even more vicious personal attack – so spare yourself. Any arguments refuting the points in the OP are welcome, so just stick to the subject & not stray into personal comments – LOL !!
 
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Dear Shri Jaykay,

I have always had respect for your analyses. I do not know much about the subject of economy but my gut feeling is that the economy would not be hit and would continue the upward trend.

Sorry I am not able to back it up with my own analysis.
 
India will descend into crisis, food shortages, looting across the cities, & entire administration will collapse as people will start rioting for food & money!!

Of course, the best course of option is to migrate abroad!!! fools have destroyed the country finally by allowing mediocrity, criminals,etc into power & supporting them for 70+ yrs !!

Finally, as our ancients say – Vinasha kale ViparithaBuddhi – Gods first make the people mad before they destroy them!! ......
Dear Jaykay Sir,

Your OP is really scary! But I don't think India will be destroyed.

We, Indians know how to live with corrupt leaders. :cool:
 
Jaykayji

Interesting analysis.

So many have predicted doomsday due to demonetisation..

Your facts are OK not conclusions.

Conceded that some industrial sectors suffered a blip . Real estate investment and sales dried up. autos,consumption dipped, black transactions reduced.Informal

sector languished.It is not doomsday yet.

India will grow inspite of everything.

Govt controls very little and inspite of what govt does, growth cannot be stopped in india.

The world economic scenario is bleak. Yet money is flowing into india pushing stock market to unrealistic levels.

The scared few are parking more in gold.

Some like you are looking for pastures abroad.

125 crores in india with maximum in young age group than any other country are unleashed and will carry us to greater heights ignoring govt policies.

Banks with high NPAs will get consolidated and will get fresh capital infusion.to make them viable and lend again.

We have had similar experiences in the past in sixties. There was one wave of migration to US.

Even if we lose a few crores of people, we will add an equal numbers by more births and

less deaths.People are our strengths.

We will shrug off some bad decisions and return to high growth path.
 
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Most of the economists, people, and opposition warned against the tsunami impact of demonetization, but the Govt, & its cohorts –large segment of Indians, Media, News papers columnists etc.. doggedly supported this move like the rats led by the pied piper !!

As usual, I warned the folks on this forum & our heroes on this forum were more confident of the uneducated leaders thanBrilliant economists, like most people in this country! And these people were shouting down all the opponents on social media, etc.. as though they had found the fountain of money due to the demonetization … LOL !

Lets analyze the impact & see why we are truly in a Pralayam situation!

Construction, Textile, Auto, Cement, Agri, FMCG etc.. Industries have all collapsed due to the sudden withdrawal of cash in the informal sector leading to widespread contagion!

Crores of Jobs were lost in the informal sector &entire auto sales & food, consumption have collapsed. Now the informal sector collapse is hitting the formal sector (economy does not realize formal & informal sector ..LOL)- & IT jobs are disappearing along with the educated fools & their silly twitter accounts.. LOL !!

Apart from this, the Income tax authorities are going after all the small businesses on black money, so they are more worried about this, than get back to running the businesses.

All building constructions are totally dependent on PSU/Co-operativeBank Loans. Similarly all manufacturers like Textile, Auto, etc.. have huge bank loans.

For nearly 7 months now, none of them have paid the bank loans, as the businesses came to a standstill. So the Bank NPAs have skyrocketed from 2 lakh Crores to 8 Lakh crores leading to dire crisis on the entire banking system.

Our famous Govt is now like the Satyam company, where Raju realized the entire company is bankrupted, but fooled everyone, saying –everything is alright, wait for some more, we will get additional deals, &we will make a lot of money, honey, etc.. LOL !!

So the Govt has fooled & fooling everyone saying – it is a great sacrifice, just hang on for some more time, the economy will recover, & we will all be singing & dancing in the fountain of money !!LOL !!

But how can the economy recover & pay back the 6 lakh crores additional NPA ?, when all the small scale manufacturers have closed their businesses, & let go all the employees ?, can the bank lend more money to builders who have not paid 7 months bank loan & need more cash to complete the building ??

None of the people are buying anything now, no new cars,scooters, houses, etc.. & due to the negative sentiment due to news reportson 2.65 lakh IT job loss, not to mention the crores in the informal sector..

Also they are seeing their neighbors, friends losing jobs in the informal economy, the folks in formal economy also have totally clamed up !! Also Indians by nature are very conservative compared to the west, so adding to this mess !!

In short, the bank collapse is imminent due to the enormous bad debt & no chance of an economic recovery. Stock market rally is a fake rally conducted by out Govt, like our Satyam Raju & will lose its bottom once Banks cannot honor their cheques !! Post demonetization in Soviet Union, the currency collapsed completely in 3 quarters – 9 months !!

India will descend into crisis, food shortages, looting across the cities, & entire administration will collapse as people will start rioting for food & money!!

Of course, the best course of option is to migrate abroad!!! fools have destroyed the country finally by allowing mediocrity, criminals,etc into power & supporting them for 70+ yrs !!

Finally, as our ancients say – Vinasha kale ViparithaBuddhi – Gods first make the people mad before they destroy them!!

Sayonara folks!!

So you are leaving India?
 
I was (and still am) of the opinion that demonetization was not necessary at this point in time of our economy. Going cashless is another headache altogether. Maybe some private companies (read BJP related) may stand to gain from all this !

Initially I was under the impression that there would be riots etc., but I had grossly underestimated the long arm of the corruption mafia. Mis-utilizing Jan Dhan accounts, ingenious ways of converting old to new, corrupt banking officials have ensured that the black money is still in vogue. In a new paper. So while the middle class and the labour class bit the bullet, the elite and the affluent are left untouched.

Last week, I had gone to Coimbatore and had seen some plots. I told the broker that my transaction would be in white; he was taken aback. "Sir, indha sikkal vera irukka. Yaaru otthukaraanga nu kettu solren." - was his reply.

Black money is very well in action. And with none of the old fervour lost.
 
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